Setting description

Several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures: (Hormone therapies, TP53-); (Taxel therapies, TEfus+); (Niraparib, DRD+)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 4 3 10
TP53- 176 5 5
TP53+ 3 69 32
DRD+ 7 3 313
TEfus+ 1 193 6
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.008 0.006 0.020
TP53- 0.352 0.010 0.010
TP53+ 0.006 0.138 0.064
DRD+ 0.014 0.006 0.626
TEfus+ 0.002 0.386 0.012
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 5 11 4
TP53- 11 132 53
TP53+ 341 17 12
DRD+ 31 36 2
TEfus+ 135 2 50
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.010 0.022 0.008
TP53- 0.022 0.264 0.106
TP53+ 0.682 0.034 0.024
DRD+ 0.062 0.072 0.004
TEfus+ 0.270 0.004 0.100
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 244 15 26
TP53+ 0 23 7
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.488 0.030 0.052
TP53+ 0.000 0.046 0.014
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.114.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.002             0.088             0.028

The overall power was 0.83.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.352             0.386             0.626

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 4 3 10
futility 0 5 11 4
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 752 (685, 790) 370 (216, 474) 316 (202, 444) 300 (189, 437)
n_unique 752 (685, 790) 370 (216, 474) 316 (202, 444) 300 (189, 437)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 18 (10, 31) 8 (7, 26) 19 (11, 26)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.85, 1) 0.84 (0.33, 0.99) 0.8 (0.25, 0.99)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.02) 0.015 (0.013, 0.017) 0.018 (0.015, 0.02) 0.018 (0.015, 0.02)
TP53- graduation 0 176 5 5
futility 0 11 132 53
max_n 0 244 15 26
n 416 (372, 448) 300 (118, 306) 126 (58, 206) 139 (72, 251)
n_unique 416 (372, 448) 300 (118, 306) 126 (58, 206) 139 (72, 251)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (36, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (19, 55) 29 (17, 47) 24 (16, 37)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.34 (0.03, 0.86) 0.58 (0.09, 0.95)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.019 (0.015, 0.023) 0.017 (0.014, 0.021)
TP53+ graduation 0 3 69 32
futility 0 341 17 12
max_n 0 0 23 7
n 335 (303, 369) 89 (52, 181) 196 (87, 277) 156 (72, 242)
n_unique 335 (303, 369) 89 (52, 181) 196 (87, 277) 156 (72, 242)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 44 (24, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (23, 51) 28 (17, 48) 28 (16, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.07 (0, 0.38) 0.97 (0.7, 1) 0.9 (0.39, 1)
rate 0.022 (0.02, 0.024) 0.028 (0.024, 0.034) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.018 (0.015, 0.022)
DRD+ graduation 0 7 3 313
futility 0 31 36 2
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 198 (159, 223) 72 (40, 109) 75 (41, 122) 116 (62, 181)
n_unique 198 (159, 223) 72 (40, 109) 75 (41, 122) 116 (62, 181)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 49 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (32, 55) 43 (32, 56) 36 (20, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.72 (0.22, 0.97) 0.64 (0.18, 0.94) 1 (0.98, 1)
rate 0.018 (0.016, 0.021) 0.016 (0.012, 0.02) 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 1 193 6
futility 0 135 2 50
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 267 (226, 299) 84 (50, 137) 166 (75, 233) 104 (59, 175)
n_unique 267 (226, 299) 84 (50, 137) 166 (75, 233) 104 (59, 175)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (34, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (45, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 39 (26, 54) 39 (22, 55) 29 (19, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.4 (0.03, 0.86) 1 (0.91, 1) 0.52 (0.08, 0.92)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.017 (0.013, 0.023) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 189 150 69
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 244 15 26
n 239 (208, 264) 197 (79, 232) 40 (18, 109) 51 (17, 143)
n_unique 239 (208, 264) 197 (79, 232) 40 (18, 109) 51 (17, 143)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.04 (0, 0.28) 0.06 (0, 0.31)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.029 (0.023, 0.038) 0.027 (0.022, 0.037)
–+ graduation 0 244 317 110
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 235 13 26
n 65 (49, 78) 28 (10, 52) 35 (13, 67) 18 (6, 47)
n_unique 65 (49, 78) 28 (10, 52) 35 (13, 67) 18 (6, 47)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.68 (0.26, 0.96) 0.78 (0.36, 0.98) 0.06 (0, 0.29)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.017) 0.011 (0.007, 0.019) 0.011 (0.007, 0.016) 0.028 (0.019, 0.045)
-+- graduation 0 350 97 54
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 23 7
n 144 (119, 165) 44 (18, 115) 65 (22, 134) 69 (17, 130)
n_unique 144 (119, 165) 44 (18, 115) 65 (22, 134) 69 (17, 130)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.07, 0.76) 0.36 (0.06, 0.83) 0.36 (0.06, 0.79)
rate 0.025 (0.022, 0.029) 0.028 (0.023, 0.038) 0.028 (0.023, 0.037) 0.027 (0.021, 0.038)
-++ graduation 0 388 254 103
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 23 7
n 108 (87, 124) 19 (7, 53) 86 (31, 115) 25 (8, 74)
n_unique 108 (87, 124) 19 (7, 53) 86 (31, 115) 25 (8, 74)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.12 (0.01, 0.45) 0.99 (0.88, 1) 0.12 (0.01, 0.45)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.022) 0.029 (0.021, 0.046) 0.01 (0.008, 0.013) 0.028 (0.02, 0.043)
+– graduation 0 204 175 347
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 240 15 19
n 57 (42, 70) 27 (7, 47) 14 (5, 36) 32 (15, 62)
n_unique 57 (42, 70) 27 (7, 47) 14 (5, 36) 32 (15, 62)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.46, 0.99) 0.15 (0.03, 0.48) 0.96 (0.69, 1)
rate 0.019 (0.015, 0.024) 0.011 (0.005, 0.019) 0.029 (0.018, 0.049) 0.01 (0.007, 0.015)
+-+ graduation 0 250 337 375
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 232 13 19
n 53 (33, 69) 20 (6, 39) 20 (6, 47) 25 (13, 51)
n_unique 53 (33, 69) 20 (6, 39) 20 (6, 47) 25 (13, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.59 (0.22, 0.89) 0.64 (0.26, 0.91) 0.74 (0.3, 0.97)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.018) 0.011 (0.007, 0.021) 0.011 (0.006, 0.018) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
++- graduation 0 366 133 334
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 23 7
n 45 (33, 55) 9 (3, 28) 15 (5, 35) 28 (12, 49)
n_unique 45 (33, 55) 9 (3, 28) 15 (5, 35) 28 (12, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.1, 0.76) 0.4 (0.08, 0.81) 0.99 (0.87, 1)
rate 0.025 (0.019, 0.032) 0.029 (0.017, 0.063) 0.027 (0.017, 0.047) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
+++ graduation 0 398 283 370
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 23 7
n 41 (26, 54) 9 (3, 24) 19 (5, 37) 23 (11, 43)
n_unique 41 (26, 54) 9 (3, 24) 19 (5, 37) 23 (11, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.18 (0.04, 0.52) 0.84 (0.4, 0.98) 0.91 (0.61, 0.99)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.024) 0.03 (0.018, 0.059) 0.01 (0.005, 0.019) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 4 3 10
time_stop 20 (17, 28) 27 (17, 29) 22 (13, 28)
n_trt 146 (121, 225) 173 (143, 175) 128 (72, 214)
n_control 236 (183, 307) 316 (200, 347) 229 (134, 274)
post_p 0.99 (0.97, 1) 0.95 (0.94, 0.99) 0.99 (0.95, 1)
order 1 (1, 1.7) 1 (1, 1.8) 1 (1, 3.1)
TP53- count 176 5 5
time_stop 38 (20, 55) 22 (20, 26) 18 (14, 26)
n_trt 194 (85, 302) 81 (70, 111) 88 (58, 108)
n_control 248 (122, 388) 144 (125, 172) 86 (74, 157)
post_p 1 (0.94, 1) 0.95 (0.92, 0.98) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.6)
TP53+ count 3 69 32
time_stop 24 (22, 25) 30 (19, 49) 31 (19, 39)
n_trt 72 (68, 73) 114 (73, 208) 96 (57, 126)
n_control 119 (114, 127) 156 (104, 276) 144 (87, 199)
post_p 0.96 (0.91, 0.99) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.99 (0.95, 1)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 1 (1, 2.2) 2 (1, 2.9)
DRD+ count 7 3 313
time_stop 42 (31, 46) 44 (34, 48) 36 (20, 56)
n_trt 67 (51, 83) 55 (53, 81) 96 (60, 157)
n_control 119 (97, 150) 129 (97, 147) 114 (61, 190)
post_p 0.96 (0.94, 0.99) 0.98 (0.96, 0.98) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1.6, 3) 2 (1.2, 3.6) 1 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 1 193 6
time_stop 28 (28, 28) 39 (22, 55) 24 (22, 28)
n_trt 66 (66, 66) 123 (65, 194) 64 (54, 70)
n_control 113 (113, 113) 171 (86, 244) 94 (86, 128)
post_p 1 (1, 1) 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 0.99)
order 3 (3, 3) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 5 11 4
time_stop 11 (10, 30) 8 (7, 12) 16 (10, 19)
n_trt 74 (57, 161) 58 (51, 92) 88 (62, 140)
n_control 130 (104, 358) 94 (71, 148) 176 (115, 206)
post_p 0.06 (0.02, 0.22) 0.12 (0.03, 0.2) 0.1 (0.02, 0.19)
order 1 (1, 4.4) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1.7)
TP53- count 11 132 53
time_stop 20 (12, 29) 30 (17, 48) 25 (17, 38)
n_trt 67 (53, 110) 74 (51, 128) 65 (51, 116)
n_control 119 (75, 187) 195 (99, 321) 150 (93, 253)
post_p 0.18 (0.05, 0.24) 0.12 (0.02, 0.27) 0.19 (0.04, 0.27)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 341 17 12
time_stop 36 (23, 51) 22 (13, 32) 21 (15, 30)
n_trt 73 (52, 143) 60 (51, 104) 58 (53, 69)
n_control 192 (111, 287) 108 (63, 167) 106 (80, 139)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.19 (0.11, 0.28) 0.17 (0.05, 0.27)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3.2) 1 (1, 2)
DRD+ count 31 36 2
time_stop 43 (32, 56) 42 (32, 57) 22 (20, 24)
n_trt 57 (51, 76) 57 (50, 83) 53 (52, 54)
n_control 138 (102, 180) 138 (102, 198) 65 (59, 71)
post_p 0.16 (0.08, 0.24) 0.18 (0.03, 0.26) 0.11 (0.06, 0.16)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 3 (3, 3)
TEfus+ count 135 2 50
time_stop 39 (26, 54) 35 (29, 41) 30 (19, 45)
n_trt 64 (51, 103) 95 (67, 123) 64 (51, 90)
n_control 170 (106, 252) 135 (121, 149) 126 (74, 198)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.09 (0.07, 0.12) 0.12 (0.04, 0.28)
order 2 (1, 3) 3.5 (3.1, 3.9) 2 (1, 3.1)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28) 20 (17, 28)
n 66 (49, 110) 16 (10, 20) 36 (28, 47) 10 (5, 17) 8 (5, 16) 4 (2, 8) 4 (3, 7) 6 (3, 10)
post_p 0.87 (0.67, 0.99) 0.73 (0.62, 0.78) 0.78 (0.64, 0.92) 0.67 (0.6, 0.75) 0.64 (0.58, 0.81) 0.6 (0.58, 0.64) 0.61 (0.55, 0.75) 0.61 (0.58, 0.66)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.003, 0.016) 0.002 (0, 0.007) 0.009 (0.006, 0.016) 0.004 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0.007) 0 (0, 0.013) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.005)
Taxel_therapies count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29) 27 (17, 29)
n 24 (22, 36) 16 (15, 22) 46 (41, 48) 44 (25, 47) 7 (5, 13) 6 (4, 8) 5 (3, 15) 7 (3, 19)
post_p 0.64 (0.58, 0.8) 0.61 (0.58, 0.65) 0.71 (0.63, 0.75) 0.79 (0.68, 0.94) 0.61 (0.58, 0.64) 0.67 (0.57, 0.69) 0.74 (0.64, 0.85) 0.6 (0.57, 0.77)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.02) 0.006 (0.001, 0.011) 0.018 (0.013, 0.021) 0.003 (0.001, 0.007) 0.007 (0.001, 0.009) 0 (0, 0) 0.014 (0.003, 0.015) 0.01 (0.002, 0.012)
Niraparib count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
time 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28) 22 (13, 28)
n 25 (14, 60) 7 (5, 29) 15 (5, 32) 12 (8, 18) 19 (11, 28) 18 (12, 24) 12 (10, 19) 10 (4, 18)
post_p 0.73 (0.57, 0.84) 0.59 (0.57, 0.69) 0.67 (0.57, 0.89) 0.64 (0.57, 0.79) 0.71 (0.62, 0.95) 0.62 (0.56, 0.84) 0.73 (0.59, 0.88) 0.73 (0.61, 0.77)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.003 (0, 0.015) 0.013 (0, 0.022) 0 (0, 0.013) 0.003 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.008) 0 (0, 0.014)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 176 176 176 176
time 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55)
n 128 (56, 202) 24 (11, 47) 18 (6, 38) 17 (6, 36)
post_p 0.98 (0.82, 1) 0.76 (0.7, 0.92) 0.76 (0.63, 0.96) 0.72 (0.62, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.006, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.006 (0, 0.013) 0.005 (0, 0.009)
Taxel_therapies count 5 5 5 5
time 22 (20, 26) 22 (20, 26) 22 (20, 26) 22 (20, 26)
n 39 (29, 68) 22 (21, 28) 6 (5, 7) 9 (6, 16)
post_p 0.76 (0.75, 0.85) 0.72 (0.71, 0.92) 0.63 (0.61, 0.66) 0.65 (0.61, 0.74)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.007, 0.011) 0 (0, 0.01) 0 (0, 0.016) 0 (0, 0.003)
Niraparib count 5 5 5 5
time 18 (14, 26) 18 (14, 26) 18 (14, 26) 18 (14, 26)
n 27 (23, 34) 11 (7, 25) 23 (17, 34) 18 (9, 21)
post_p 0.82 (0.73, 0.89) 0.71 (0.63, 0.81) 0.92 (0.85, 0.97) 0.7 (0.67, 0.73)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.003 (0, 0.008) 0.003 (0, 0.008) 0.003 (0, 0.006) 0 (0, 0.007)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 24 (22, 25) 24 (22, 25) 24 (22, 25) 24 (22, 25)
n 40 (39, 42) 19 (12, 20) 7 (6, 7) 7 (5, 9)
post_p 0.87 (0.79, 0.95) 0.73 (0.63, 0.76) 0.62 (0.62, 0.73) 0.63 (0.63, 0.66)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.008, 0.014) 0.008 (0.006, 0.009) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.007)
Taxel_therapies count 69 69 69 69
time 30 (19, 49) 30 (19, 49) 30 (19, 49) 30 (19, 49)
n 48 (31, 93) 44 (28, 77) 8 (4, 23) 9 (3, 28)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.9) 0.91 (0.78, 1) 0.68 (0.62, 0.85) 0.73 (0.61, 0.94)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.012, 0.024) 0.008 (0.002, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.021) 0 (0, 0.01)
Niraparib count 32 32 32 32
time 31 (19, 39) 31 (19, 39) 31 (19, 39) 31 (19, 39)
n 34 (17, 65) 22 (8, 37) 16 (10, 23) 16 (10, 25)
post_p 0.77 (0.7, 0.88) 0.74 (0.63, 0.86) 0.81 (0.71, 0.96) 0.83 (0.73, 0.94)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.01 (0, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.006 (0, 0.012)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 7 7 7 7
time 42 (31, 46) 42 (31, 46) 42 (31, 46) 42 (31, 46)
n 23 (17, 39) 19 (11, 25) 12 (8, 22) 9 (8, 12)
post_p 0.79 (0.73, 0.84) 0.78 (0.7, 0.84) 0.78 (0.69, 0.85) 0.65 (0.62, 0.77)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0.002, 0.012) 0.005 (0.001, 0.008) 0.014 (0.003, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 44 (34, 48) 44 (34, 48) 44 (34, 48) 44 (34, 48)
n 18 (17, 37) 16 (10, 20) 10 (4, 22) 12 (10, 13)
post_p 0.85 (0.73, 0.87) 0.76 (0.74, 0.83) 0.69 (0.64, 0.7) 0.74 (0.66, 0.88)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.004 (0.001, 0.005) 0.016 (0.003, 0.016) 0.006 (0.006, 0.014)
Niraparib count 313 313 313 313
time 36 (20, 56) 36 (20, 56) 36 (20, 56) 36 (20, 56)
n 27 (16, 48) 24 (15, 46) 22 (11, 43) 21 (11, 36)
post_p 0.84 (0.72, 0.98) 0.76 (0.71, 0.92) 0.89 (0.72, 1) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 28 (28, 28) 28 (28, 28) 28 (28, 28) 28 (28, 28)
n 24 (24, 24) 20 (20, 20) 18 (18, 18) 4 (4, 4)
post_p 0.83 (0.83, 0.83) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.67 (0.67, 0.67)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.003 (0.003, 0.003) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 193 193 193 193
time 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55)
n 30 (14, 55) 61 (29, 95) 18 (6, 36) 12 (5, 30)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.95) 0.94 (0.75, 1) 0.73 (0.61, 0.86) 0.73 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0.002, 0.012) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.005 (0, 0.009) 0.005 (0, 0.012)
Niraparib count 6 6 6 6
time 24 (22, 28) 24 (22, 28) 24 (22, 28) 24 (22, 28)
n 8 (6, 10) 17 (15, 22) 21 (16, 26) 16 (11, 20)
post_p 0.63 (0.61, 0.69) 0.77 (0.74, 0.79) 0.8 (0.74, 0.89) 0.8 (0.76, 0.89)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.003 (0, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.016) 0.008 (0.004, 0.01) 0.004 (0, 0.01)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30) 11 (10, 30)
n 40 (21, 60) 9 (7, 23) 15 (13, 43) 3 (1, 12) 3 (2, 15) 4 (2, 12) 2 (0, 5) 4 (1, 5)
post_p 0.39 (0.36, 0.46) 0.4 (0.33, 0.46) 0.3 (0.27, 0.46) 0.26 (0.22, 0.39) 0.41 (0.31, 0.47) 0.25 (0.16, 0.47) 0.12 (0.04, 0.39) 0.46 (0.27, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.008, 0.017) 0.018 (0.005, 0.037) 0.029 (0.019, 0.036) 0.054 (0.033, 0.245) 0.014 (0, 0.061) 0.019 (0, 0.041) 0.088 (0.018, 0.106) 0 (0, 0.034)
Taxel_therapies count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
time 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12) 8 (7, 12)
n 18 (11, 24) 10 (5, 14) 18 (9, 22) 13 (9, 14) 1 (0, 5) 1 (0, 5) 1 (0, 2) 2 (0, 6)
post_p 0.33 (0.18, 0.42) 0.42 (0.32, 0.49) 0.33 (0.13, 0.49) 0.41 (0.3, 0.49) 0.48 (0.46, 0.49) 0.44 (0.37, 0.47) 0.46 (0.38, 0.49) 0.46 (0.29, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.015, 0.053) 0 (0, 0.023) 0.035 (0.007, 0.041) 0.016 (0, 0.032) 0 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0.129) 0 (0, 0.122) 0 (0, 0.021)
Niraparib count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19) 16 (10, 19)
n 12 (7, 43) 6 (3, 8) 14 (6, 22) 11 (2, 20) 13 (6, 18) 13 (11, 21) 10 (8, 12) 8 (6, 9)
post_p 0.36 (0.31, 0.43) 0.22 (0.2, 0.28) 0.44 (0.32, 0.49) 0.45 (0.33, 0.47) 0.35 (0.21, 0.47) 0.34 (0.16, 0.35) 0.39 (0.38, 0.47) 0.46 (0.42, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.013, 0.039) 0.047 (0.034, 0.082) 0.019 (0.005, 0.026) 0.015 (0.004, 0.066) 0.018 (0.012, 0.031) 0.017 (0.009, 0.038) 0.012 (0.007, 0.023) 0.014 (0.003, 0.016)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 20 (12, 29) 20 (12, 29) 20 (12, 29) 20 (12, 29)
n 45 (35, 72) 9 (4, 21) 5 (2, 13) 6 (3, 16)
post_p 0.36 (0.22, 0.46) 0.4 (0.21, 0.46) 0.36 (0.26, 0.48) 0.35 (0.2, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.011, 0.02) 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.026 (0.018, 0.041) 0.016 (0, 0.037)
Taxel_therapies count 132 132 132 132
time 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48)
n 33 (18, 67) 19 (10, 41) 9 (3, 18) 12 (5, 25)
post_p 0.18 (0.03, 0.41) 0.39 (0.21, 0.48) 0.28 (0.08, 0.45) 0.42 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.016, 0.035) 0.015 (0.009, 0.025) 0.027 (0.013, 0.06) 0.013 (0.006, 0.03)
Niraparib count 53 53 53 53
time 25 (17, 38) 25 (17, 38) 25 (17, 38) 25 (17, 38)
n 22 (13, 57) 9 (5, 20) 18 (10, 27) 18 (11, 31)
post_p 0.24 (0.06, 0.46) 0.26 (0.07, 0.45) 0.41 (0.24, 0.49) 0.39 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.015, 0.034) 0.025 (0.013, 0.054) 0.015 (0.009, 0.022) 0.013 (0.007, 0.018)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 341 341 341 341
time 36 (23, 51) 36 (23, 51) 36 (23, 51) 36 (23, 51)
n 39 (19, 88) 17 (7, 41) 8 (3, 20) 8 (3, 19)
post_p 0.38 (0.12, 0.49) 0.24 (0.04, 0.45) 0.34 (0.13, 0.48) 0.29 (0.07, 0.47)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.02, 0.037) 0.025 (0.017, 0.047) 0.029 (0.018, 0.069) 0.028 (0.014, 0.066)
Taxel_therapies count 17 17 17 17
time 22 (13, 32) 22 (13, 32) 22 (13, 32) 22 (13, 32)
n 28 (17, 39) 26 (11, 45) 4 (2, 8) 6 (3, 16)
post_p 0.36 (0.2, 0.44) 0.46 (0.25, 0.49) 0.29 (0.17, 0.44) 0.36 (0.23, 0.46)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.019, 0.029) 0.014 (0.01, 0.025) 0.045 (0.011, 0.126) 0.025 (0.013, 0.055)
Niraparib count 12 12 12 12
time 21 (15, 30) 21 (15, 30) 21 (15, 30) 21 (15, 30)
n 24 (15, 32) 12 (7, 24) 13 (7, 21) 10 (6, 15)
post_p 0.24 (0.1, 0.46) 0.42 (0.08, 0.47) 0.39 (0.3, 0.45) 0.37 (0.27, 0.41)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.028 (0.014, 0.042) 0.022 (0.014, 0.031) 0.018 (0.014, 0.033) 0.016 (0.008, 0.022)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 31 31 31 31
time 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56)
n 24 (8, 36) 18 (10, 26) 7 (4, 20) 10 (3, 23)
post_p 0.4 (0.23, 0.49) 0.39 (0.24, 0.48) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.2 (0.04, 0.34)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.011, 0.026) 0.014 (0.009, 0.021) 0.033 (0.021, 0.092) 0.031 (0.021, 0.049)
Taxel_therapies count 36 36 36 36
time 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57)
n 14 (6, 20) 18 (8, 36) 12 (6, 19) 16 (8, 26)
post_p 0.21 (0.05, 0.43) 0.32 (0.18, 0.49) 0.3 (0.09, 0.47) 0.4 (0.26, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.016, 0.046) 0.015 (0.011, 0.024) 0.025 (0.017, 0.06) 0.015 (0.011, 0.03)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24)
n 18 (17, 19) 11 (10, 12) 14 (13, 15) 10 (10, 10)
post_p 0.43 (0.4, 0.47) 0.17 (0.11, 0.23) 0.42 (0.35, 0.48) 0.43 (0.37, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.034 (0.024, 0.043) 0.016 (0.008, 0.023) 0.009 (0.008, 0.011)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 135 135 135 135
time 39 (26, 54) 39 (26, 54) 39 (26, 54) 39 (26, 54)
n 21 (8, 40) 19 (8, 41) 16 (7, 28) 8 (3, 18)
post_p 0.41 (0.22, 0.48) 0.18 (0.04, 0.46) 0.37 (0.2, 0.48) 0.26 (0.06, 0.46)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.026) 0.027 (0.018, 0.045) 0.014 (0.009, 0.023) 0.027 (0.016, 0.058)
Taxel_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 35 (29, 41) 35 (29, 41) 35 (29, 41) 35 (29, 41)
n 24 (18, 30) 41 (16, 66) 13 (11, 15) 18 (11, 24)
post_p 0.3 (0.17, 0.43) 0.38 (0.36, 0.39) 0.17 (0.07, 0.27) 0.41 (0.36, 0.46)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.016 (0.013, 0.018) 0.032 (0.018, 0.046) 0.023 (0.02, 0.026)
Niraparib count 50 50 50 50
time 30 (19, 45) 30 (19, 45) 30 (19, 45) 30 (19, 45)
n 10 (6, 21) 18 (8, 34) 18 (9, 27) 16 (10, 26)
post_p 0.2 (0.06, 0.39) 0.28 (0.06, 0.48) 0.35 (0.22, 0.47) 0.41 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.025 (0.014, 0.045) 0.025 (0.014, 0.043) 0.014 (0.008, 0.023) 0.014 (0.008, 0.024)